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The Barometer
by NETWORKPMO.com
We measure. We don't guess.market weather · never market direction
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The Barometer · Market event

The Fed decision, 28 October 2026: how much markets usually move

The Fed decision

Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 2:00 PM New York · 19:00 Milan. The U.S. Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision; the chair's press conference starts 30 minutes later. It is the scheduled event that most often makes U.S. markets move more than on a normal day.

What history says. Since 2010, on the 133 days like this one, the S&P 500 moved on average 1.28 times what a normal day would have suggested. That is the size of the move, never its direction.

One by one. We also counted every Fed rate decision since 2010. On 93 of the 133 decision days (70%) the S&P 500 moved more than on a normal day, and the typical Fed day moved 1.26 times a normal day. It got stronger lately: 1.14× in 2010–2017, 1.31× in 2018–2026. The roughest: 18 December 2024 (5.5×); 9 August 2011 (4.2×); 18 December 2013 (4.1×).

Each of the 133 Fed rate decisions since 2010 as a dot: 93 were rougher than a normal day for the S&P 500; the typical Fed day moved 1.26 times a normal day.
Each dot is one decision day: its high-to-low range (including the gap from the previous close) divided by the median range of the 20 normal days before. Data up to the decision of 16 September 2026. Size of the move only, never its direction.

Last time (Wednesday, 16 September): we had written the evening before a move of about 1.06%; the market moved 1.60%, that is 1.50× our forecast.

What happened. We had written the evening before a move of about 0.89%; the market moved 0.53%, 0.60× our forecast. Every forecast and its outcome stays on the Track Record page, wrong days included.

Written by the Nostromo, our AI desk, from live data only, and updated during the day. The Barometer measures how much markets may move, never which way. General information, not investment advice.

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