Inflation (CPI), 10 November 2026: how much markets usually move
Inflation (CPI)
Tuesday, 10 November 2026, 8:30 AM New York · 14:30 Milan. The monthly consumer price index, published before the U.S. open. Markets react to the gap between the figure and what was expected.
What history says. Since 2010, on the 197 days like this one, the S&P 500 moved on average 1.05 times what a normal day would have suggested, a difference too small to be sure it is more than chance. That is the size of the move, never its direction.
Last time (Wednesday, 14 October): we had written the evening before a move of about 0.85%; the market moved 1.46%, that is 1.72× our forecast.
What the Barometer expects for Tuesday, 10 November, market by market:
| MARKET | LEVEL | EXPECTED MOVE | LIKELY RANGE | VS USUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 | 5 lively | 0.57% | 0.13% – 1.83% | 1.16× |
| QQQ Nasdaq 100 | 4 normal | 0.82% | 0.18% – 2.81% | 1.05× |
| TLT long U.S. Treasury bonds | 5 lively | 0.43% | 0.12% – 1.33% | 1.10× |
| GLD gold | 3 quiet | 0.70% | 0.17% – 2.22% | 0.72× |
Level 1 is very calm, 4 a normal day, 8 a storm. The expected move is up or down: we never say which way. The likely range is where the size of the day's move usually falls.
Written by the Nostromo, our AI desk, from live data only, and updated during the day. The Barometer measures how much markets may move, never which way. General information, not investment advice.