Risk-on: the Risk Pulse went from +15.7 to +38.1, with 3 changes of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from +15.7 at the start of the day to +38.1 now, moving between −35.1 and +46.4. The pattern now is risk-on: crypto up, VXX down. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
- ① Tue 10:42 The pattern turned risk-off; the Risk Pulse was at −13.4.
- ② Tue 18:25 The pattern turned risk-on; the Risk Pulse was at +32.8.
Above 0 the mood leans toward risk, below 0 it leans cautious. It describes the mood as it was; it is not a forecast of direction.
The close
Asia: Nikkei level 1 (very calm), Hang Seng level 1 (very calm).
Europe: DAX level 2 (calm), FTSE MIB level 1 (very calm), FTSE 100 level 7 (very high).
United States: Dow Jones level 2 (calm), S&P 500 level 1 (very calm), Nasdaq level 3 (below normal).
Moves of the day
- 09:32 · sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 09:47 · Jakarta Composite down
- 10:40 · Regime shift: RISK-OFF: Nasdaq weak · HY credit selling
- 14:47 · 5 sharp moves in 20 min · largest: sharp move in E · VIX down
- 15:39 · 3 sharp moves in 8 min · largest: sharp move in E · Coinbase up · VIX up · MicroStrategy down
- 16:11 · sharp move in T · Wheat ETF up · VIX down
- 16:46 · IPC Mexico up
- 18:21 · Regime shift: RISK-ON: crypto up · VXX down
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
The markets had a notably calm day, with the Risk Pulse rising from +15.5 to +37.4, indicating a shift towards a risk-on pattern. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX, FTSE MIB, Nikkei, and Hang Seng closed at levels ranging from very calm to below normal, with the FTSE 100 being the outlier at a very high level of 7. The day saw several fluctuations, with a risk-off pattern emerging midday before reverting to risk-on.
The news desk noted significant movements in AAPL, PLTR, and XOM, with AAPL reacting negatively to its quarterly performance, PLTR showing a usual response to a news story, and XOM experiencing a calmer day than usual. The Stress Test indicated that nine out of sixteen broad markets were calmer than usual, with BRL/USD being the roughest at 1.83 times its usual level and CNY/USD the calmest at 0.21 times. The options market priced a typical day for the S&P 500 at 1.33%, while the Nasdaq 100 was priced at 1.95%, reflecting the market's perception of volatility.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
The Fat Lady's desk
Our news desk read 24 stories about 8 companies; after 10 of them the stock had a day at least twice its usual size. One company per line below.
AAPL (Apple Inc.), Tuesday, 3 November: the stock's day was far more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: The increase in sales and tariff refunds could positively impact the stock price.
HD (Home Depot, Inc. (The)), Tuesday, 3 November: the stock's day was more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: The news could significantly impact the performance forecasts compared to a direct competitor.
WMT (Walmart Inc.), Tuesday, 3 November: the stock's day was more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: Heavy investment in robotics could significantly impact future company performance.
PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.), Tuesday, 3 November: the stock's day was about usual.
Her reading, before any price: The news concerns an increase in revenue forecasts due to the success of AI, which can positively impact PLTR's stock.
NOW (ServiceNow, Inc.), Tuesday, 3 November: the stock's day was about usual.
Her reading, before any price: The analysis of third-quarter financial data can significantly impact the stock's predictions and value.
Stress Test: the water now
Of 16 broad markets, 9 are calmer than their own usual, 6 about as usual and 1 rougher. The roughest compared with its usual: BRL / USD at 1.83×; the calmest: CNY / USD at 0.21×. The furthest below its peak: BRL / USD, 71.8% below (on 10.0% of its past days it was even further below).
The price of fear
Options work like insurance against big moves: their price tells how big the market thinks the next month's moves will be. Over the last year, the options on Oil asked for the most extra: on average 0.64% a day more movement than really came.
| FUND | OPTIONS EXPECT NOW | MOVED, LAST 21 DAYS | USUAL GAP | EXPECTED MORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 1.33% | 0.71% | +0.35% | 97% of days |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | 1.95% | 1.46% | +0.31% | 89% of days |
| Dow Jones DIA | 1.18% | 0.61% | +0.27% | 96% of days |
| Gold GLD | 1.60% | 1.36% | +0.10% | 57% of days |
| Oil USO | 3.95% | 2.36% | +0.64% | 81% of days |
All values are the size of a typical day, up or down. Measured Mon 02 Nov, 23:10 (Milan). It says how big moves were priced, never which way.
Our record since the start
Since the start, forecasts written the evening before and then checked: 818 right of 1625 (50%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the Track Record page, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off, flight to quality, liquidity squeeze, stagflation, bull trap, bear trap or exhaustion. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving far more than usual, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the companies whose stock had the biggest day compared with its usual one after a news story, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read the story. We do not reproduce the stories or any price.
- Stress Test: the water now: each broad market compared with its own long-run usual roughness: below 0.8× is calmer than usual, above 1.25× rougher. "Below its peak" is how far it stands under its highest point so far.
- The price of fear: options work like insurance against big moves. "Options expect" is the move their price asks for, as the size of a typical day; "usual gap" is how much more (or less) than what really came, over the last year. Measured every weekday evening after the U.S. close: the Log shows the latest measurement.
- Our record since the start: every forecast of the size of the move written the evening before and checked after the close, since the Barometer began. A coin would be right about half the time.
— Written by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 22:30 Milan time.