Crypto stress: the Risk Pulse went from −4.7 to −7.3, with 2 changes of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from −4.7 at the start of the day to −7.3 now, moving between −30.5 and +23.9. The pattern now is crypto stress: crypto down, metals flat. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
- ① Mon 09:47 The pattern turned liquidity squeeze; the Risk Pulse was at −5.2.
- ② Mon 18:41 The pattern turned crypto stress; the Risk Pulse was at +14.4.
Above 0 the mood leans toward risk, below 0 it leans cautious. It describes the mood as it was; it is not a forecast of direction.
The close
Asia: Nikkei level 8 (extreme), Hang Seng level 5 (elevated).
Europe: DAX level 3 (below normal), FTSE MIB level 4 (normal), FTSE 100 level 1 (very calm).
United States: Dow Jones level 2 (calm), S&P 500 level 2 (calm), Nasdaq level 4 (normal).
Moves of the day
- 15:52 · 2 sharp moves in 4 min · largest: sharp move in E · Coinbase down · Healthcare Sector up
- 16:00 · Nikkei 225 down
- 16:02 · KOSDAQ down
- 16:02 · KOSPI down
- 16:22 · South Africa Top 40 up
- 17:00 · Shenzhen Component down
- 17:00 · Taiwan Weighted Index down
- 18:39 · Regime shift: CRYPTO STRESS: crypto down · metals flat
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
The markets were notably calm today, with the Risk Pulse indicating a shift towards stress, particularly in the crypto sector. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and FTSE 100 were notably tranquil, closing at levels 2, 2, and 1 of 8, respectively. The Nikkei stood out as the roughest, closing at level 8 of 8, while the Hang Seng was also elevated at level 5 of 8. The news desk observed that most markets were calmer than usual, with the BRL / USD being the roughest at 1.82 times its usual level, and the CNY / USD being the calmest at 0.23 times. The options market priced a higher level of volatility, with the S&P 500 options pricing a typical day of 1.22%, while in reality, it moved 0.72% a day over the last 21 market days. Similarly, Nasdaq 100 options priced a typical day of 1.80%, while it moved 1.44% a day over the same period.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
Stress Test: the water now
Of 16 broad markets, 10 are calmer than their own usual, 5 about as usual and 1 rougher. The roughest compared with its usual: BRL / USD at 1.82×; the calmest: CNY / USD at 0.23×. The furthest below its peak: BRL / USD, 71.5% below (on 11.9% of its past days it was even further below).
The price of fear
Options work like insurance against big moves: their price tells how big the market thinks the next month's moves will be. Over the last year, the options on Oil asked for the most extra: on average 0.64% a day more movement than really came.
| FUND | OPTIONS EXPECT NOW | MOVED, LAST 21 DAYS | USUAL GAP | EXPECTED MORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 1.22% | 0.72% | +0.35% | 97% of days |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | 1.80% | 1.44% | +0.31% | 90% of days |
| Dow Jones DIA | 1.07% | 0.61% | +0.27% | 96% of days |
| Gold GLD | 1.65% | 1.32% | +0.10% | 56% of days |
| Oil USO | 3.68% | 1.77% | +0.64% | 81% of days |
All values are the size of a typical day, up or down. Measured Fri 30 Oct, 23:10 (Milan). It says how big moves were priced, never which way.
Our record since the start
Since the start, forecasts written the evening before and then checked: 757 right of 1495 (51%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the Track Record page, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off, flight to quality, liquidity squeeze, stagflation, bull trap, bear trap or exhaustion. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving far more than usual, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the companies whose stock had the biggest day compared with its usual one after a news story, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read the story. We do not reproduce the stories or any price.
- Stress Test: the water now: each broad market compared with its own long-run usual roughness: below 0.8× is calmer than usual, above 1.25× rougher. "Below its peak" is how far it stands under its highest point so far.
- The price of fear: options work like insurance against big moves. "Options expect" is the move their price asks for, as the size of a typical day; "usual gap" is how much more (or less) than what really came, over the last year. Measured every weekday evening after the U.S. close: the Log shows the latest measurement.
- Our record since the start: every forecast of the size of the move written the evening before and checked after the close, since the Barometer began. A coin would be right about half the time.
— Written by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 22:30 Milan time.