Stagflation: the Risk Pulse went from +38.1 to +27.3, with 1 change of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from +38.1 at the start of the day to +27.3 now, moving between +4.6 and +54.5. The pattern now is stagflation: yields rising, oil up. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
- ① Wed 17:24 The pattern turned stagflation; the Risk Pulse was at +14.6.
Above 0 the mood leans toward risk, below 0 it leans cautious. It describes the mood as it was; it is not a forecast of direction.
The close
Asia: Nikkei level 7 (very high), Hang Seng level 2 (calm).
Europe: DAX level 2 (calm), FTSE MIB level 1 (very calm), FTSE 100 level 1 (very calm).
United States: Dow Jones level 1 (very calm), S&P 500 level 1 (very calm), Nasdaq level 1 (very calm).
Moves of the day
- 08:33 · sharp move in E · KOSDAQ up · Taiwan Weighted In up
- 10:53 · TA-125 Israel down
- 14:50 · 2 sharp moves in 12 min · largest: sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 15:16 · 2 sharp moves in 10 min · largest: sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 17:20 · Regime shift: STAGFLATION: yields rising · oil up
- 19:00 · Ibovespa Brazil down
- 19:25 · sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 19:45 · sharp move in E · no market reacted
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
The markets saw a notably calm day today, with most indices moving very little compared to their usual sessions. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at level 1, indicating very calm conditions, while the DAX in Europe closed at level 2, still relatively calm. The Nikkei in Asia was the outlier, closing at level 7, very high compared to its usual activity. The Risk Pulse dropped from +38.1 at midnight to +26.3 by the end of the day, with the highest point reaching +54.5.
The news desk noted several significant stock movements today, with JPMorgan, ExxonMobil, and Palantir seeing larger than usual fluctuations. JPMorgan's day was influenced by its role as the sales leader for Anthropic's stock offering, while ExxonMobil reached annual highs. Meanwhile, the day was less eventful for General Electric and Accenture. The stress test showed that 12 out of 16 broad markets were calmer than usual, with the BRL/USD exchange being the roughest at 1.77 times its usual volatility. Options markets priced a typical day for the S&P 500 at 1.10%, while over the last year, they asked on average 0.35% more than the actual daily movement.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
The Fat Lady's desk
Our news desk read 293 stories about 44 companies; after 10 of them the stock had a day at least twice its usual size. One company per line below.
JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.), Wednesday, 28 October: the stock's day was far more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: JPMorgan is chosen as the sales leader for Anthropic's stock offering, potentially influencing the demand for JPMorgan's own shares.
XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation), Wednesday, 28 October: the stock's day was more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: The news suggests that XOM has reached annual highs, indicating strong market movements.
PFE (Pfizer, Inc.), Wednesday, 28 October: the stock's day was more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: The news suggests that a single number could significantly influence investors' decisions on PFE.
GE (GE Aerospace), Wednesday, 28 October: the stock's day was more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: Buying ETFs is not enough to cause strong short-term fluctuations in the stock.
PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.), Wednesday, 28 October: the stock's day was more than usual.
Her reading, before any price: ETFs are selling PLTR, but it's not an event that typically causes strong fluctuations in the stock.
Stress Test: the water now
Of 16 broad markets, 12 are calmer than their own usual, 3 about as usual and 1 rougher. The roughest compared with its usual: BRL / USD at 1.77×; the calmest: CNY / USD at 0.21×. The furthest below its peak: BRL / USD, 71.3% below (on 13.2% of its past days it was even further below).
The price of fear
Options work like insurance against big moves: their price tells how big the market thinks the next month's moves will be. Over the last year, the options on Oil asked for the most extra: on average 0.62% a day more movement than really came.
| FUND | OPTIONS EXPECT NOW | MOVED, LAST 21 DAYS | USUAL GAP | EXPECTED MORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 1.10% | 0.60% | +0.35% | 97% of days |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | 1.57% | 1.18% | +0.31% | 90% of days |
| Dow Jones DIA | 1.05% | 0.58% | +0.27% | 96% of days |
| Gold GLD | 1.42% | 1.09% | +0.08% | 55% of days |
| Oil USO | 3.49% | 2.12% | +0.62% | 81% of days |
All values are the size of a typical day, up or down. Measured Tue 27 Oct, 23:10 (Milan). It says how big moves were priced, never which way.
Our record since the start
Since the start, forecasts written the evening before and then checked: 556 right of 1105 (50%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the Track Record page, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off, flight to quality, liquidity squeeze, stagflation, bull trap, bear trap or exhaustion. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving far more than usual, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the companies whose stock had the biggest day compared with its usual one after a news story, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read the story. We do not reproduce the stories or any price.
- Stress Test: the water now: each broad market compared with its own long-run usual roughness: below 0.8× is calmer than usual, above 1.25× rougher. "Below its peak" is how far it stands under its highest point so far.
- The price of fear: options work like insurance against big moves. "Options expect" is the move their price asks for, as the size of a typical day; "usual gap" is how much more (or less) than what really came, over the last year. Measured every weekday evening after the U.S. close: the Log shows the latest measurement.
- Our record since the start: every forecast of the size of the move written the evening before and checked after the close, since the Barometer began. A coin would be right about half the time.
— Written by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 22:30 Milan time.