Bull trap: the Risk Pulse went from +35.6 to +39.2, with 2 changes of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from +35.6 at the start of the day to +39.2 now, moving between +8.1 and +47.4. The pattern now is bull trap: narrow leadership (equal-weight lagging), bonds bid despite rally. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
- ① Tue 02:48 The pattern turned bull trap; the Risk Pulse was at +47.2.
Above 0 the mood leans toward risk, below 0 it leans cautious. It describes the mood as it was; it is not a forecast of direction.
The close
Asia: Nikkei −0.80%, Hang Seng +0.51%.
Europe: DAX +0.71%, FTSE MIB +0.90%, FTSE 100 −0.75%.
United States: Dow Jones +0.03%, S&P 500 +0.60%, Nasdaq +1.18%.
Moves of the day
- 03:05 · KOSDAQ +4.6%
- 03:07 · KOSPI +4.9%
- 04:01 · Ibovespa Brazil -13.9%
- 08:15 · Shenzhen Component -2.5%
- 08:35 · sharp move in E · KOSDAQ +2.3% · ASX 200 +0.5%
- 09:33 · Jakarta Composite -3.5%
- 12:03 · sharp move in E · VIX +0.7%
- 17:46 · Austria ATX +2.8%
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
The Risk Pulse climbed from +35.6 at midnight to +40.2 by the end of the day, with a range of +8.1 to +47.4. The day was marked by a bull trap pattern, characterized by narrow leadership and bonds being bid despite the market's rally. The US markets showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones closing up 0.03%, the S&P 500 up 0.60%, and the Nasdaq up 1.18%. In Europe, the DAX and FTSE MIB closed up 0.71% and 0.90%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 closed down 0.75%. Asian markets also varied, with the Nikkei closing down 0.80% and the Hang Seng up 0.51%. The news desk noted several significant movements, including AMD, TSLA, AVGO, TXN, and ORCL, each influenced by various corporate actions and analyst upgrades. The stress test indicated that most markets were calmer than usual, with the BRL/USD being the roughest and the CNY/USD the calmest. The options market priced a typical day of movement at 1.16% for the S&P 500, 1.66% for the Nasdaq 100, and 1.07% for the Dow Jones, reflecting a slightly higher level of fear compared to recent market movements.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
The Fat Lady's desk
Our news desk read 320 stories about 45 companies; 90 of them were followed by a move of more than 2% against the whole market. One story per company below.
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.), Tuesday, 27 October: Cathie Wood Trims AMD and TSMC, Adds Air Taxi Bets
Against the market so far: +4.86%. Her reading, before any price: Cathie Wood, a well-known investor, has changed her position on AMD, but it's not a groundbreaking news.
TSLA (Tesla, Inc.), Tuesday, 27 October: Barclays Upgrades Tesla Stock Citing SpaceX Merger Potential And Robotaxi Growth
Against the market so far: +3.44%. Her reading, before any price: The news suggests a potential increase in TSLA's value due to a possible merger with SpaceX and the growth of Robotaxi services.
AVGO (Broadcom Inc.), Tuesday, 27 October: Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Broadcom, Conoco Phillips, HubSpot, MercadoLibre, Moderna, Occidental Petroleum, PNC Financial, Trimble, and Mo
Against the market so far: +3.41%. Her reading, before any price: The news includes AVGO among the companies analyzed, but does not specify details that could cause strong movements in the stock.
XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation), Tuesday, 27 October: 28 ETFs Add to ExxonMobil (XOM) Holdings on Friday
Against the market so far: −3.12%. Her reading, before any price: The increase in holdings by ETFs could positively impact the stock, but it is not an extraordinary event.
TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated), Tuesday, 27 October: Here's How Much a $1000 Investment in Texas Instruments Made 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
Against the market so far: +3.09%. Her reading, before any price: The news concerns the historical performance of an investment, not imminent events or significant changes in the company's situation.
Stress Test: the water now
Of 16 broad markets, 12 are calmer than their own usual, 3 about as usual and 1 rougher. The roughest compared with its usual: BRL / USD at 1.53×; the calmest: CNY / USD at 0.25×. The furthest below its peak: BRL / USD, 71.4% below (on 12.3% of its past days it was even further below).
The price of fear
Options work like insurance against big moves: their price tells how big the market thinks the next month's moves will be. Over the last year, the options on Oil asked for the most extra: on average 0.62% a day more movement than really came.
| FUND | OPTIONS EXPECT NOW | MOVED, LAST 21 DAYS | USUAL GAP | EXPECTED MORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 1.16% | 0.61% | +0.35% | 97% of days |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | 1.66% | 1.17% | +0.31% | 90% of days |
| Dow Jones DIA | 1.07% | 0.60% | +0.27% | 96% of days |
| Gold GLD | 1.48% | 1.37% | +0.07% | 55% of days |
| Oil USO | 3.70% | 2.11% | +0.62% | 81% of days |
All values are the size of a typical day, up or down. Measured Mon 26 Oct, 23:10 (Milan). It says how big moves were priced, never which way.
Our record since the start
Since the start, forecasts written the evening before and then checked: 520 right of 975 (53%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the Track Record page, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off, flight to quality, liquidity squeeze, stagflation, bull trap, bear trap or exhaustion. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving more than 2%, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the news stories of the day that moved their stock most against the whole market, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read them. Against the market means: the stock's move minus the S&P 500 move over the same time.
- Stress Test: the water now: each broad market compared with its own long-run usual roughness: below 0.8× is calmer than usual, above 1.25× rougher. "Below its peak" is how far it stands under its highest point so far.
- The price of fear: options work like insurance against big moves. "Options expect" is the move their price asks for, as the size of a typical day; "usual gap" is how much more (or less) than what really came, over the last year. Measured every weekday evening after the U.S. close: the Log shows the latest measurement.
- Our record since the start: every forecast of the size of the move written the evening before and checked after the close, since the Barometer began. A coin would be right about half the time.
— Written by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 22:30 Milan time.