Neutral / mixed: the Risk Pulse went from +13.6 to +38.9, with 2 changes of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from +13.6 at the start of the day to +38.9 now, moving between −13.9 and +50.4. The pattern now is neutral / mixed: narrow leadership (equal-weight lagging), bonds bid despite rally. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
- ① Mon 08:40 The pattern turned stagflation; the Risk Pulse was at −11.1.
- ② Mon 16:19 The pattern turned neutral / mixed; the Risk Pulse was at +44.5.
Above 0 the mood leans toward risk, below 0 it leans cautious. It describes the mood as it was; it is not a forecast of direction.
The close
Asia: Nikkei −0.34%, Hang Seng +0.69%.
Europe: DAX +0.91%, FTSE MIB +1.29%, FTSE 100 +0.72%.
United States: Dow Jones +0.28%, S&P 500 +0.70%, Nasdaq +0.82%.
Moves of the day
- 09:32 · sharp move in E · VIX -0.4%
- 09:56 · sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 12:44 · sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 13:04 · 2 sharp moves in 6 min · largest: sharp move in T · no market reacted
- 14:49 · 4 sharp moves in 12 min · largest: sharp move in E · VIX Short-Term Fut -0.6% · Oil & Gas Explorat +0.5% · Nasdaq Volatility +0.4%
- 15:41 · Ibovespa Brazil -17.3%
- 16:15 · Regime shift: NEUTRAL / MIXED: narrow leadership (equal-weight lagging) · bonds bid despite rally
- 17:01 · Shenzhen Component +2.8%
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
The Risk Pulse surged from +13.6 at midnight to +39.6 by the close, with the pattern shifting to neutral/mixed, marked by narrow leadership and bonds being bid despite the rally. Markets showed varied movements, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closing up 0.28%, 0.70%, and 0.82%, respectively. The European markets, including the DAX, FTSE MIB, and FTSE 100, also closed up, while the Nikkei closed down 0.34%. The news desk noted significant movements in TSLA, MRK, NFLX, META, and MA, with each seeing notable fluctuations against the S&P 500. The stress test indicated that 12 out of 16 broad markets were calmer than usual, with the Nikkei being the roughest at 1.20 times its usual volatility. The options market priced a typical day for the S&P 500 at 1.23%, while the Nasdaq 100 was priced at 1.78%, reflecting higher perceived volatility.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
The Fat Lady's desk
Our news desk read 461 stories about 48 companies; 103 of them were followed by a move of more than 2% against the whole market. One story per company below.
TSLA (Tesla, Inc.), Monday, 26 October: Tesla Says Latvia Authorizes its Assisted Driving System
Against the market so far: +4.53%. Her reading, before any price: Approval of an assisted driving system in a new country could increase sales forecasts.
VZ (Verizon Communications Inc.), Monday, 26 October: Verizon beats profit estimates, raises guidance
Against the market so far: −4.08%. Her reading, before any price: The news suggests that VZ exceeded profit expectations and improved its forecasts.
MRK (Merck & Company, Inc.), Monday, 26 October: Beyond Keytruda: The Critical Pipeline Metrics to Watch in Merck’s Q3 Results on Oct. 29
Against the market so far: −3.92%. Her reading, before any price: The news concerns the quarterly results and the product pipeline, key factors for MRK's stock performance.
TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated), Monday, 26 October: Texas Instruments Raised Its Dividend Again. Can Analog Chips Keep Funding It?
Against the market so far: +3.87%. Her reading, before any price: The dividend increase could attract or worry investors, influencing the stock price.
NFLX (Netflix, Inc.), Monday, 26 October: What Does Netflix (NFLX) Leadership Shake Up Mean For Its Content Direction?
Against the market so far: −3.70%. Her reading, before any price: Changes in leadership can influence the company's content strategy and future.
Stress Test: the water now
Of 16 broad markets, 12 are calmer than their own usual, 4 about as usual and 0 rougher. The roughest compared with its usual: Nikkei 225 at 1.20×; the calmest: CNY / USD at 0.19×. The furthest below its peak: BRL / USD, 69.3% below (on 27.5% of its past days it was even further below).
The price of fear
Options work like insurance against big moves: their price tells how big the market thinks the next month's moves will be. Over the last year, the options on Oil asked for the most extra: on average 0.62% a day more movement than really came.
| FUND | OPTIONS EXPECT NOW | MOVED, LAST 21 DAYS | USUAL GAP | EXPECTED MORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 1.23% | 0.60% | +0.35% | 97% of days |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | 1.78% | 1.15% | +0.31% | 90% of days |
| Dow Jones DIA | 1.08% | 0.63% | +0.27% | 96% of days |
| Gold GLD | 1.53% | 1.37% | +0.07% | 54% of days |
| Oil USO | 3.78% | 2.18% | +0.62% | 81% of days |
All values are the size of a typical day, up or down. Measured Fri 23 Oct, 23:10 (Milan). It says how big moves were priced, never which way.
Our record since the start
Since the start, forecasts written the evening before and then checked: 447 right of 845 (53%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the Track Record page, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off or stagflation. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving more than 2%, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the news stories of the day that moved their stock most against the whole market, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read them. Against the market means: the stock's move minus the S&P 500 move over the same time.
- Stress Test: the water now: each broad market compared with its own long-run usual roughness: below 0.8× is calmer than usual, above 1.25× rougher. "Below its peak" is how far it stands under its highest point so far.
- The price of fear: options work like insurance against big moves. "Options expect" is the move their price asks for, as the size of a typical day; "usual gap" is how much more (or less) than what really came, over the last year. Measured every weekday evening after the U.S. close: the Log shows the latest measurement.
- Our record since the start: every forecast of the size of the move written the evening before and checked after the close, since the Barometer began. A coin would be right about half the time.
— Written by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 22:30 Milan time.