Stagflation: the Risk Pulse went from +6.4 to +7.4, with 3 changes of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from +6.4 at the start of the day to +7.4 now, moving between −27.1 and +10.5. The pattern now is stagflation: yields rising, oil up. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
The close
Asia: Nikkei −2.65%, Hang Seng −3.03%.
Europe: DAX −0.75%, FTSE MIB +0.36%, FTSE 100 −0.32%.
United States: Dow Jones −1.23%, S&P 500 −0.52%, Nasdaq −0.21%.
Moves of the day
- 08:57 · Shenzhen Component +3.1%
- 09:19 · Regime shift: STAGFLATION: equities falling · oil up
- 09:35 · sharp move in E · no market reacted
- 14:06 · sharp move in T · no market reacted
- 15:34 · 3 sharp moves in 10 min · largest: sharp move in T · MicroStrategy +1.0% · VIX Short-Term Fut +0.7% · Coinbase +0.6%
- 15:56 · Regime shift: RISK-OFF: VIX elevated
- 16:02 · sharp move in E · MicroStrategy +0.4% · Soybean ETF +0.4% · Nasdaq Volatility +0.4%
- 16:30 · Regime shift: STAGFLATION: equities falling · oil up
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
Today, markets showed significant volatility, with the Dow Jones down 1.20%, S&P 500 down 0.52%, and Nasdaq down 0.22%. In Europe, DAX fell 0.75%, FTSE 100 dropped 0.32%, but FTSE MIB rose 0.36%. In Asia, Nikkei closed down 2.65%, and Hang Seng fell 3.03%. The Risk Pulse decreased to +4.6, reflecting a shift towards a stagflation pattern, marked by rising yields and oil prices. Notably, Chevron and ExxonMobil stocks moved against the broader market trends, with Chevron up 3.49% and ExxonMobil up 3.26%.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
The Fat Lady's desk
CVX (Chevron Corporation): Market Chatter: Chevron Plans to Boost Argentina Oil Output With $13.8 Billion Investment
Against the market so far: +3.43%. Her reading: An investment of 13.8 billion dollars could significantly influence the company's future performance.
CVX (Chevron Corporation): What Is Chevron (CVX) Eyeing In Iraq With The West Qurna 2 Field?
Against the market so far: +3.43%. Her reading: The news concerns possible new investments or developments in the oil field in Iraq, which could significantly influence CVX's prospects.
XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation): ExxonMobil Stock And Oil Majors With The Most Riding On Crude Prices
Against the market so far: +3.33%. Her reading: The news concerns XOM's position in the oil markets, with no elements that could cause strong immediate fluctuations in the stock.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off or stagflation. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving more than 2%, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the news stories of the day that moved their stock most against the whole market, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read them. Against the market means: the stock's move minus the S&P 500 move over the same time.
— Written by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 22:30 Milan time.