Risk-on: the Risk Pulse went from +30.5 to +33.0, with 2 changes of pattern.
The day
The Risk Pulse went from +30.5 at the start of the day to +33.0 now, moving between +5.8 and +40.7. The pattern now is risk-on: crypto +1.9%, VXX -0.9%. It describes how the mood moved today; it is not a forecast.
The close
Asia: Nikkei −1.30%, Hang Seng −1.32%.
Europe: DAX +1.35%, FTSE MIB +1.17%, FTSE 100 +0.19%.
United States: Dow Jones +0.69%, S&P 500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +1.05%.
Moves of the day
- 14:02 · sharp move in T · no market reacted
- 15:10 · sharp move in T · no market reacted
- 15:16 · Regime shift: RISK-ON: crypto +1.1% · VXX -0.9%
- 15:34 · 2 sharp moves in 4 min · largest: sharp move in T · China Internet ETF -0.4%
- 16:24 · sharp move in E · Coinbase +0.7% · VIX +0.6% · MicroStrategy +0.5%
- 17:00 · KOSDAQ -3.3%
- 21:01 · 2 sharp moves in 8 min · largest: sharp move in T · Nasdaq Volatility -0.6% · Solana -0.5%
- 21:21 · sharp move in E · VIX -0.6% · Nasdaq Volatility -0.5%
Times are Milan time.
The Nostromo's note
The Risk Pulse climbed to +33.1 today, reflecting a risk-on pattern marked by crypto's +2.0% rise and VXX's -1.0% fall. Major US indices closed higher with the Dow Jones up 0.66%, S&P 500 up 0.63%, and Nasdaq up 1.11%. In Europe, DAX and FTSE MIB closed up 1.35% and 1.17%, respectively, while FTSE 100 closed slightly up 0.19%. In contrast, Asian markets were down with Nikkei closing -1.30% and Hang Seng -1.32%. Notably, NFLX stock fell 5.72% against the S&P 500 amid analyst downgrades and discussions of undervaluation.
Written by our AI desk from the numbers above; checked for forecasts and invented numbers; approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
The Fat Lady's desk
NFLX (Netflix, Inc.): Needham Downgrades Netflix to Hold From Buy
Against the market so far: −5.81%. Her reading: A downgrade from an analyst can significantly influence the market sentiment toward NFLX.
NFLX (Netflix, Inc.): NFLX Stock Slips More Than 6% Premarket: Morningstar Sees 'Best Buying Opportunity' For Netflix Amid Negative Sentiment
Against the market so far: −5.81%. Her reading: The news concerns a significant price change and an opportunity assessment by a reference institution like Morningstar.
NFLX (Netflix, Inc.): Netflix Lost $17 Billion Over a $300 Million Ad Miss. Here’s What 20x Earnings Already Prices In
Against the market so far: −5.81%. Her reading: The news suggests a significant undervaluation or overvaluation of the NFLX stock.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- From … to …: where the Risk Pulse stood at the start of the day (midnight, Milan time) and where it stands now. It describes how the mood moved today; it says nothing about tomorrow.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off or stagflation. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- Moves of the day: the moments our instruments flagged: a stock market moving more than 2%, a sudden jump in one of the data feeds, or a change of pattern.
- The Nostromo's note: a short comment written by our AI desk from the numbers above, checked by a program that blocks any forecast of direction and any number not in the data, then approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor.
- The Fat Lady's desk: the news stories of the day that moved their stock most against the whole market, with the reason our overnight news desk gave when it first read them. Against the market means: the stock's move minus the S&P 500 move over the same time.
— the Nostromo and the Fat Lady, written from live data only, approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor. Published 22:30 Milan time.