Crypto stress mood, a normal day for most markets; VNQ (U.S. real estate) is the one to watch.
The mood
The Risk Pulse is at −2.4: the market is neutral. The pattern right now is crypto stress: crypto -4.0% (worst ADA -5.8%), metals +0.0%. The three sources disagree today, so read the number with care. It describes the mood as it is now; it is not a forecast of direction.
The world
Asia: Nikkei −0.34%, Hang Seng +1.13%.
Europe: DAX −1.07%, FTSE MIB −2.54%, FTSE 100 −0.26%.
United States: Dow Jones +0.02%, S&P 500 −1.21%, Nasdaq −2.60%.
The biggest move on the board: Nasdaq −2.60%.
Noted overnight: 04:35 Shanghai Composite -2.3%; 02:30 KOSPI -7.3%; 02:29 KOSDAQ -7.5%; 02:25 Nikkei 225 -4.8%; 21:46 Nasdaq 100 -3.2%; 21:02 Nasdaq Composite -2.9% (Milan time).
Today's weather
Of 13 markets we follow, 3 are expected to move more than usual today and 5 less than usual. The busiest: VNQ (U.S. real estate), about 1.23× its usual move. The calmest: GLD (gold), 0.63×.
| MARKET | LEVEL | EXPECTED MOVE | VS USUAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | 5 | lively | 0.57% | 1.15× |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 4 | normal | 0.74% | 0.96× |
| IWM | U.S. small companies | 4 | normal | 0.66% | 0.95× |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 3 | quiet | 0.43% | 0.82× |
| EFA | developed markets outside the U.S. | 4 | normal | 0.62% | 1.05× |
| EEM | emerging markets | 4 | normal | 0.77% | 0.99× |
| GLD | gold | 2 | calm | 0.60% | 0.63× |
| TLT | long U.S. Treasury bonds | 5 | lively | 0.46% | 1.19× |
| XLF | U.S. banks and financials | 4 | normal | 0.60% | 1.04× |
| XLE | U.S. energy | 3 | quiet | 0.75% | 0.79× |
| XLK | U.S. technology | 3 | quiet | 0.80% | 0.74× |
| VNQ | U.S. real estate | 5 | lively | 0.66% | 1.23× |
| SMH | semiconductors | 3 | quiet | 1.16% | 0.74× |
Level 1 is very calm, 4 is a normal day, 8 is a storm. The expected move is up or down: we never say which way.
Over the next days, volatility is expected to stay about where it is.
Rare moves
On Thursday, 22 October: TLT (long U.S. Treasury bonds) +1.87%, the biggest move in 128 days; SMH (semiconductors) −5.99%, a move seen about 1 day in 26; XLK (U.S. technology) −3.29%, a move seen about 1 day in 16; QQQ (Nasdaq 100) −2.86%, a move seen about 1 day in 16. Rare does not mean "about to bounce".
Our record
Forecasts written before the day and then checked: 371 right of 715 (52%). A coin would give about 50%. It is a strict test: a day counts as right only if we said in advance whether it would be busier or calmer than that market's usual day, and it really was. Every forecast is on the Track Record page, wrong days included, so you can judge it yourself.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off or stagflation. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- The three sources: the Risk Pulse is built from three independent data feeds. When they agree, the number is sturdier.
- Level 1 to 8: how much a market is expected to move today, compared with its own history: 1 very calm, 4 a normal day, 8 a storm.
- Expected move: the typical size of today's move, up or down, in percent. 0.52% means a move of about half a percent either way.
- Vs usual: today's expected move divided by the market's usual one: 1.00× is usual, 1.12× is 12% more than usual, 0.66× is a third less.
- Rare moves: moves on the last market day that were unusually large for that market, and how often a move that size happens. Rare does not mean it will reverse.
- Our record: every forecast of the size of the move is written before the day and checked after the close: right means we called correctly whether the day would be busier or calmer than usual. A coin would score about 50%.
The level colours: 12345678 from very calm to extreme.
— Written by the Nostromo, our AI desk, from live data only; approved after automatic checks. Published 09:00 Milan time.