Crypto stress mood, a calm day ahead for most markets.
The mood
The Risk Pulse is at +33.2: the market is leaning toward risk. The pattern right now is crypto stress: crypto -2.3% (worst ADA -3.2%), metals +0.0%. The three sources broadly agree. It describes the mood as it is now; it is not a forecast of direction.
The world
Asia: Nikkei −2.65%, Hang Seng −3.14%.
Europe: DAX +1.35%, FTSE MIB +1.17%, FTSE 100 +0.19%.
United States: Dow Jones +0.69%, S&P 500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +1.05%.
The biggest move on the board: Hang Seng −3.14%.
Noted overnight: 08:45 Nikkei 225 -2.7%; 08:11 Hang Seng -3.2%; 08:11 KOSDAQ -3.9%; 08:11 KOSPI -4.4%; 08:03 Shenzhen Component -3.0%; 05:26 Regime shift: CRYPTO STRESS: crypto -1.6% (worst DOGE -2.1%) · metals +0.0% (Milan time).
Today's weather
Of 13 markets we follow, 1 is expected to move more than usual today and 10 less than usual. The busiest: VNQ (U.S. real estate), about 1.16× its usual move. The calmest: XLK (U.S. technology), 0.63×.
| MARKET | LEVEL | EXPECTED MOVE | VS USUAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | 3 | quiet | 0.37% | 0.78× |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 3 | quiet | 0.58% | 0.77× |
| IWM | U.S. small companies | 3 | quiet | 0.59% | 0.86× |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 3 | quiet | 0.36% | 0.71× |
| EFA | developed markets outside the U.S. | 3 | quiet | 0.47% | 0.81× |
| EEM | emerging markets | 3 | quiet | 0.69% | 0.90× |
| GLD | gold | 2 | calm | 0.63% | 0.66× |
| TLT | long U.S. Treasury bonds | 4 | normal | 0.40% | 1.05× |
| XLF | U.S. banks and financials | 4 | normal | 0.55% | 0.96× |
| XLE | U.S. energy | 3 | quiet | 0.68% | 0.73× |
| XLK | U.S. technology | 2 | calm | 0.67% | 0.63× |
| VNQ | U.S. real estate | 5 | lively | 0.61% | 1.16× |
| SMH | semiconductors | 2 | calm | 0.96% | 0.64× |
Level 1 is very calm, 4 is a normal day, 8 is a storm. The expected move is up or down: we never say which way.
Over the next days, volatility is expected to stay about where it is.
Our record
Forecasts written before the day and then checked: 312 right of 585 (53%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the site, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off or stagflation. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- The three sources: the Risk Pulse is built from three independent data feeds. When they agree, the number is sturdier.
- Level 1 to 8: how much a market is expected to move today, compared with its own history: 1 very calm, 4 a normal day, 8 a storm.
- Expected move: the typical size of today's move, up or down, in percent. 0.52% means a move of about half a percent either way.
- Vs usual: today's expected move divided by the market's usual one: 1.00× is usual, 1.12× is 12% more than usual, 0.66× is a third less.
- Rare moves: moves on the last market day that were unusually large for that market, and how often a move that size happens. Rare does not mean it will reverse.
- Our record: every forecast of the size of the move is written before the day and checked after the close. A coin would score about 50%.
The level colours: 12345678 from very calm to extreme.
— the Nostromo, written from live data only, approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor. Published 09:00 Milan time.