Risk-on mood, a normal day for most markets; TLT (long U.S. Treasury bonds) is the one to watch.
The mood
The Risk Pulse is at +31.1: the market is leaning toward risk. The pattern right now is risk-on: crypto +2.2%, VXX -1.2%. The three sources broadly agree. It describes the mood as it is now; it is not a forecast of direction.
The world
Asia: Nikkei +0.85%, Hang Seng −0.68%.
Europe: DAX −0.06%, FTSE MIB −0.03%, FTSE 100 −0.29%.
United States: Dow Jones +1.02%, S&P 500 +0.28%, Nasdaq −0.02%.
The biggest move on the board: Dow Jones +1.02%.
Noted overnight: 04:19 KOSPI +4.7% (Milan time).
Today's weather
Of 13 markets we follow, 2 are expected to move more than usual today and 6 less than usual. The busiest: TLT (long U.S. Treasury bonds), about 1.12× its usual move. The calmest: GLD (gold), 0.66×.
| MARKET | LEVEL | EXPECTED MOVE | VS USUAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | 4 | normal | 0.52% | 1.06× |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 4 | normal | 0.76% | 0.99× |
| IWM | U.S. small companies | 4 | normal | 0.68% | 0.97× |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 2 | calm | 0.35% | 0.69× |
| EFA | developed markets outside the U.S. | 3 | quiet | 0.50% | 0.85× |
| EEM | emerging markets | 4 | normal | 0.86% | 1.07× |
| GLD | gold | 2 | calm | 0.64% | 0.66× |
| TLT | long U.S. Treasury bonds | 5 | lively | 0.43% | 1.12× |
| XLF | U.S. banks and financials | 4 | normal | 0.56% | 0.97× |
| XLE | U.S. energy | 3 | quiet | 0.73% | 0.77× |
| XLK | U.S. technology | 3 | quiet | 0.83% | 0.78× |
| VNQ | U.S. real estate | 5 | lively | 0.58% | 1.11× |
| SMH | semiconductors | 3 | quiet | 1.15% | 0.77× |
Level 1 is very calm, 4 is a normal day, 8 is a storm. The expected move is up or down: we never say which way.
Over the next days, volatility is expected to stay about where it is.
Rare moves
On Tuesday, 20 October: VNQ (U.S. real estate) +1.73%, a move seen about 1 day in 16. Rare does not mean "about to bounce".
Our record
Forecasts written before the day and then checked: 253 right of 468 (54%). A coin would give about 50%. Every one is on the site, wrong days included.
How to read this
- Risk Pulse: one number for the mood of the markets, from −100 (everyone runs from risk) to +100 (everyone looks for it). Around 0 is neutral. It describes the mood now; it never says where prices will go.
- The pattern: what is moving together right now: risk-on, calm, neutral / mixed, crypto stress, risk-off or stagflation. The words after it are the moves that set it.
- The three sources: the Risk Pulse is built from three independent data feeds. When they agree, the number is sturdier.
- Level 1 to 8: how much a market is expected to move today, compared with its own history: 1 very calm, 4 a normal day, 8 a storm.
- Expected move: the typical size of today's move, up or down, in percent. 0.52% means a move of about half a percent either way.
- Vs usual: today's expected move divided by the market's usual one: 1.00× is usual, 1.12× is 12% more than usual, 0.66× is a third less.
- Rare moves: moves on the last market day that were unusually large for that market, and how often a move that size happens. Rare does not mean it will reverse.
- Our record: every forecast of the size of the move is written before the day and checked after the close. A coin would score about 50%.
The level colours: 12345678 from very calm to extreme.
— the Nostromo, written from live data only, checked automatically before publication. Published 15:13 Milan time.